Dampak Luas Lahan, Iklim, dan Variabel Ekonomi terhadap Produktivitas Kelapa Sawit: Aplikasi Regresi Linier dan Kuadratik

Abstract

Indonesia is known as a major palm oil producer, with North Sumatra being a key production area. This study aims to analyze the simultaneous influence of environmental and economic factors on oil palm productivity using an applied mathematical model. A quantitative approach was employed with annual secondary data from 2010 to 2021. The independent variables included land area, rainfall, number of rainy days, FFB price, and agricultural sector's GRDP. Linear and quadratic regression analyses were applied to capture the relationships between variables. Both models showed a very high predictive capability with an R² of 0.947. However, the linear model was more suitable as the quadratic variable coefficients were mostly insignificant. The agricultural GRDP factor (beta=0.963) and land area (beta=0.835) were proven to have the most significant and positive effects on productivity. Rainfall and FFB price also had a significant positive influence. These findings affirm the dominant role of economic and environmental factors in determining productivity, highlighting the importance of policies focused on increasing investment and sustainable land management.